نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• رسول صادقی

دانشیار گروه جمعیت شناسی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه به‌خاطر ثبات نسبی باروری و مرگ‌ومیر در سطوح پایین، سهم مهاجرت در پویایی جمعیت و تغییرات منطقه‌ای برجسته‌تر شده است. مهاجرت، فرایندی پویا و ناشی از شرایط در حال تغییر اجتماعی است که می‌تواند نه‌تنها بر مهاجران، بلکه بر مناطق مبدأ و مقصد نیز تأثیر بگذارد. افزایش مهاجرت‌ها و جابه‌جایی‌های جمعیتی، به‌ویژه از مناطق مرزی کشور به سمت مرکز و سکونت آن‌ها در پیرامون شهرهای بزرگ، به‌ویژه پایتخت، یکی از مسائل و چالش‌های اجتماعی و جمعیتی کشور به شمار می‌آید. در این راستا، این مقاله با استفاده از تحلیل ثانویه داده‌های فردی و انبوه سرشماری‌های 1390 و 1395 به بررسی الگوها و تعیین‌کننده‌های مهاجرت داخلی در کشور می‌پردازد. نتایج نشان داد که با افزایش میزان شهرنشینی، گذار خالص جمعیت از مناطق روستایی به شهرها کاهش یافته و در مقابل، مهاجرت‌های بین‌شهری افزایش یافته است. تهران به‌عنوان جذاب‌ترین استان کشور برای مهاجرت از سوی اکثر استان‌ها شناخته می‌شود و جذابیت آن به‌ویژه برای استان‌های غربی بیشتر است. همچنین، جریان مهاجرتی خارج‌شده از استان تهران به استان البرز و دو استان شمالی کشور یعنی گیلان و مازندران است که مهاجرت به آن‌ها شیوع بیشتری در میان سالمندان و بازنشستگان دارد. بعلاوه، نتایج نشان داد که تهران و استان‌های اطراف با افزایش جمعیت ناشی از مهاجرت روبرو هستند، در حالی‌که استان‌های غربی و جنوب‌شرقی با سطح پایین توسعه، کاهش جمعیت ناشی از مهاجرت را تجربه می‌کنند. با توجه به نابرابری‌های منطقه‌ای، ساختار سنی جوان و میان‌سال، افزایش سطح تحصیلات، بیکاری بالای جوانان و کمبود فرصت‌های شغلی در بیشتر استان‌ها و شهرستان‌های کشور، انتظار می‌رود روند مهاجرت‌های داخلی، به‌ویژه مهاجرت‌های بین استانی، در سال‌های آینده افزایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مهاجرت داخلی
• مهاجرتهای بین‌شهری
• پویایی جمعیت
• نابرابری منطقهای

موضوعات

• جمعیت شناسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Patterns and Determinants of Internal Migration in Iran

نویسنده [English]

• Rasoul Sadeghi

Associate professor, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

 
Today, due to the relative stability of fertility and mortality at low levels, the contribution of migration to population dynamics and regional changes has become more noticeable. Migration is a dynamic process arising from changing social contexts that can affect not only migrants but also the origin and destination regions. The increase in migrations and displacements, especially from the border areas of the country towards the center and their settlement around megacities, especially around Tehran the capital of Iran, is one of the main social and demographic issues and challenges in Iran. In this regard, this article examines the patterns and determinants of internal migration in the country by using the secondary analysis of individual and aggregated data from the 2011 and 2016 population censuses. The results showed that with the increase in urbanization, the net migration of the population from rural to urban areas decreased and inter-city migrations increased. Tehran is the most attractive province for migration from most provinces. The attractiveness of Tehran is especially higher for western provinces. However, the migration flow from Tehran province is towards Alborz province, and the two northern provinces of the country, Gilan and Mazandaran, where migration is more common among the elderly. In addition, Tehran and surrounding provinces are facing population gain (increase) due to migration, while western and south-eastern provinces, with low levels of development, experience population loss (decrease) due to migration. Considering regional inequalities, age structure (young/ middle-aged), increase in education level, high youth unemployment, and lack of job opportunities in most provinces and counties, it is expected that the trend of internal migration, especially inter-provincial migration, will increase.
Keywords: Internal Migration, Inter-City Migration, Population Dynamics, Regional Inequality.
 
 
Introduction
Migration is the movement of individuals from one place to another with the intention of settling, either permanently or temporarily. Today, due to the relatively stable levels of fertility and mortality, the impact of migration on population dynamics and regional changes has become more pronounced. Migration is a dynamic process influenced by changing social contexts that can impact not only migrants but also the regions they come from and go to. While migration is often viewed as an individual pursuit for a better life, it is also a collective response to social, economic, and political changes. In the era of globalization, migration has become a highly politicized issue, leading to significant social, economic, and political consequences in both host and origin countries. Internal migration and displacement can be triggered by a variety of factors with varying degrees of effectiveness. Therefore, gaining a comprehensive understanding of migration factors is crucial in migration studies. The increase in migrations, particularly from border areas to urban centers like Tehran, poses significant social and demographic challenges in Iran. Thus, this article explores the patterns and determinants of internal migration in Iran.
Materials and Methods
This study analyzed individual and aggregated data from the 2011 and 2016 population censuses in Iran, to investigate internal migration trends, patterns, and flows from 2006 to 2016. By focusing on recent migration data at the provincial and county levels, the study aims to provide insights into regional migration patterns and the drivers of internal migration.
Findings
The findings indicated that during the initial phases of urbanization, rural-urban migration was predominant, but as urbanization progressed, urban-to-urban migration became the dominant pattern. As urbanization increased, net migration from rural to urban areas decreased, while inter-city migrations rose. Male migration patterns were influenced more by employment factors, while female migration was driven by family and education considerations. Demographic selective of internal migration led to changes in the age and gender composition of both origin and destination populations. The aging and feminization of rural and underdeveloped areas were attributed to the out-migration of young men. This trend also resulted in a shortage of marriage partners for women in rural regions.
Also, results showed Regional migration patterns were linked to regional economic development and growth. Disparities in development led to uneven growth and uncontrolled population movements. Tehran emerged as the most attractive destination for migrants from other provinces, particularly from the western regions. However, out-migration from Tehran was directed towards Alborz, Gilan, and Mazandaran provinces, where elderly migration was more common in this case. Tehran and its surrounding provinces experienced population growth due to migration, while less developed western and southeastern provinces saw population decline. Provinces with net negative migration tended to have predominantly rural populations and high unemployment rates.
Conclusion
The study's findings revealed a shift in the pattern of rural-urban migration towards inter-city migration, with a rise in inter-county and inter-provincial migration. There has also been an increase in the involvement of women in migration flows, as well as a surge in out-migration from the eastern and western regions towards the central region. Given the existing regional disparities, the relatively young and middle-aged population structure, higher education levels, elevated youth unemployment rates, and limited job opportunities in many provinces and counties, it is anticipated that internal migration, particularly inter-provincial migration, will continue to increase. The ongoing trend of migration from less developed areas to more developed regions is further widening regional inequalities.
Acknowledgments
The initial version of this article was presented at the First National Conference on the Social Situation of Iran, hosted by Allameh Tabataba'i University and supported by the Ministry of Interior's Social Affairs Organization in March 2023. The author would like to express their gratitude to the organizers and supporters of the conference for providing the opportunity to present this article and subsequently revise and expand it to its current form.
Conflict of interest
There is no conflict of interest.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Internal Migration
• Inter-City Migration
• Population Dynamics
• Regional Inequality