نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

شهرستان­های مرزی کشور مناطقی استراتژیک و حیاتی هستند که تعادل جمعیتی این مناطق نقشی مهم در حفظ امنیت داخلی کشور دارد. متأسفانه بسیاری از شهرستان­های مرزی توان و پتانسیل حفظ جمعیت خود را ندارند و با روند مهاجرفرستی فزاینده روبه‌رو هستند. این پژوهش به تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر شاخص­های مهاجرت 118 شهرستان مرزنشین پرداخته است. قلمرو زمانی پژوهش شامل روند تغییرات مهاجرت بر اساس داده­های سرشماری در فاصله سال‌های 95-1390 است. برای آزمون فرضیات تحقیق از الگوی تحلیلی تاپسیس، آزمون-های معناداری پیرسون و رگرسیون، آزمون­های موران عمومی، الگوی فضایی بر اساس نقاط داغ و تحلیل کلاستر استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که میان مهاجرپذیری، خالص مهاجرت، ناخالص مهاجرت و توسعه شهرستان­های مرزنشین رابطه مثبت و معناداری برقرار است. توسعه­یافتگی قادر به تبیین بیش از 19 درصد تغییرات خالص مهاجرت این شهرستان­ها است. همچنین آزمون خوشه­ای ماتریس دووجهی متغیرهای توسعه-یافتگی و خالص مهاجرت نشان داد که عمدتاً شهرستان­های مرزنشین مهاجرفرست بوده و از نظر توسعه­یافتگی نیز در خوشه­های سوم و چهارم (پایین‌ترین سطح توسعه) قرار دارند. میزان خالص مهاجرتی تمایل به متمرکز شدن در فضا دارد. به‌طوری‌که تجمع فضایی لکه­های سرد (مهاجر فرستی بیشتر) متعلق به برخی شهرستان‌های مرزنشین استان‌های اردبیل، کرمانشاه، ایلام و خراسان جنوبی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Study and analysis of the influencing factors of development on the migration patterns in border cities of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmoud Moshfegh 1
  • Mohammad Shekofteh Gohari 2

1 Assistant Professor of Demography, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

2 MA of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

This study was conducted by analyzing the secondary data of 118 border cities. The research period includes the trend of migration changes based on census data during the period 1390-1395. To prove the research hypotheses of the Topsis analytical model of Border Cities Development Index, Pearson and regression tests, General Moran tests, Spatial pattern based on hot spots and Cluster analysis is used. The results showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between immigration, net migration, gross migration and development of border cities. Developments are able to account for more than 19 percent of the net migration changes in these cities. Also, the two-way matrix cluster test of the variables of development and net migration indicated that often borderline cities are immigrants and in terms of development, they are in the third and fourth clusters (the lowest level of development). The findings also showed that immigration continued to be a centralized pattern in Iran and Iran's border cities are the most important migrant cities to the more central and more developed provinces of Iran. The net rate of migration tends to concentrate or cluster in space.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Development
  • Bordering cities
  • Spatial pattern of migration
  • Cluster analysis
  • Spatial planning
Akbari, N., Zahedi, M, . (2009). Application of multi-indicator ranking and decision-making methods. Ministry of Interior. Publications of the Organization of Municipalities and Villages of the country. [In Persian]
Ardeshiri, M., & Zahed, S., (1996). Investigation of some of the major economic, cultural and climatic factors of inter-provincial migration in the period 1986-1986, Shiraz University, [In Persian]
Broki, A., & Einali, J., (2017). The Analysis of Factors Affecting the Emigration in Border Villages (Case Study: Border Villages of South Chalderan District, Journal of border science and technique, 4: 63-83. [In Persian]
Bunea, D. (2012). Modern gravity models of internal migration. The case of Romania. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 4(4), 127.‏
Brueckner, J. K., & Lall, S. V. (2015). Cities in developing countries: fueled by rural–urban migration, lacking in tenure security, and short of affordable housing. In Handbook of regional and urban economics (Vol. 5, pp. 1399-1455). Elsevier.‏
De Haas, H. (2007). Turning the tide? Why development will not stop migration. Development and change, 38(5), 819-841.‏
De Haas, H. (2010). Migration and development: A theoretical perspective. International migration review, 44(1), 227-264.
Ghasemi Ardahaee, A., and Mahmoudian, H., and Nowbakht, R. (2017). An Analysis of the Causes of Internal Migration of the Census of 2006 and 2012. Quarterly of social studies and research in Iran. 3: 375-390. [In Persian]
Hataminejad, H., Abobakri, T, . Ahmadi, A., Naebzadeh, F, . (2012). Measuring the degree of industrial development in the border areas of Iran (Case study: Northwest of the country, southern cities of West Azerbaijan Province) Journal of Research and Urban Planning, 6: 1-18. [In Persian]
Jennissen, R. (2007). Causality chains in the international migration systems approach. Population research and policy review, 26(4), 411-436.
Kazemipour, Sh. (2004). principles of demography. Tehran: national population studies & comprehensive management institute. [In Persian]
Keijzer, N., Héraud, J., & Frankenhaeuser, M. (2016). Theory and practice? A comparative analysis of migration and development policies in eleven European countries and the European Commission. International Migration, 54(2), 69-81.‏
Kooshafar, H. & Vasegh, L. (2013). Effects of Migration on Social Security Border City (Case Study: Sistan and Baluchestan border, Journal of DANESH-E-ENTEZAMI, 3: 1-26. [In Persian]
Lahsaeizadeh, A. (1989). Migration Theories. Shiraz: Navid. [In Persian]
Meshkini, A., Tardast, Z., Karami, A. (2019). Spatial explanation of development ranking of cities in Ilam border province, Border Science and Techniques, 1: 1-27. [In Persian]
Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo G. (1998). Worlds in motion. Understanding international migration at the End of the Millenium, Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Mohammadpour, A. (2010). Qualitative Research, Method Counter Method, the Logic and Design in Qualitative Methodology. Tehran: Jameshenasan. [in Persian]
Moshfeq, M., and Hoseini, Gh. (2016). A Comparative Study on Policy Experiences Regarding to Balanced Distribution of Urban Population in Selected Asian Countries. urban and regional development planning. 3: 1-29. [In Persian]
Norolahi, T., (1998). Internal migration in iran during the period 1986-1996, . Population Magazine.23-24. [In Persian]
Panahi, L., Pishroo, H., (2012) Investigating the factors affecting the migration of rural youth to the city Case study: Villages of the central part of Marvdasht city, journal of Regional Planning, 2: 41-50. [In Persian]
Papoliyazdi, M., and rajabi, H., (2007) Theories of the city and suburb, Teharan: Samt. [In Persian]
Pinyol-Jimenez, G. (2012). The migration-security nexus in short: instruments and actions in the European Union. Amsterdam LF, 4, 36.‏
Porumbescu, A. (2012). East European migration patterns-Romanian emigration. Revista de Științe Politice. Revue des Sciences Politiques, (35), 268-274.
Porumbescu, A. (2015). Defining the new economics of labor migration theory boundaries: a sociological-level analysis of international migration. Revista de Științe Politice. Revue des Sciences Politiques, (45), 55-64.
Shafiei kakheki, M. (2011). Migration; Inequality of income or promotion of quality of life. Applied Economics. 4: 89-112. [In Persian]
Sirkeci, I., Cohen, J. H., & Yazgan, P. (2012). Turkish culture of migration: Flows between Turkey and Germany, socio-economic development and conflict. Migration Letters, 9(1), 33-46.
Stark, O. (1991). The migration of labour, Cambridge: Basic Blackwell.
Stark, O., Bloom, E. D. (1985). The New Economics of Labor Migration. The American Economic Review, 75 (2): 173-178.
Taghavi, N. (2008). Rural-urban migration. Teharan: Samt. [In Persian]
Tanha, F., and Goli, M. (2013). Investigating the Process of Inter-provincial Migration of Iran in the Last Three Decades (Census 1986 -2011). Population Magazine.85-86: 57-78. [In Persian]
United Nations (2009). Overcoming barriers: Human mobility and development, Human Development Report 2009. Basingstoke: United Nations Development Program.
Varesi, H., and Sarvari, Z. (2005). An Analysis of the Interplay of Development, Migration and Urbanization in Iran. Journal of Geography and Regional Development. 6: 79-96. [In Persian].