مطالعه وضعیت مهاجرت در شهرستان‌های مرزنشین ایران و اثرات سطح توسعه‌یافتگی بر آن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

شهرستان­های مرزی کشور مناطقی استراتژیک و حیاتی هستند که تعادل جمعیتی این مناطق نقشی مهم در حفظ امنیت داخلی کشور دارد. متأسفانه بسیاری از شهرستان­های مرزی توان و پتانسیل حفظ جمعیت خود را ندارند و با روند مهاجرفرستی فزاینده روبه‌رو هستند. این پژوهش به تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر شاخص­های مهاجرت 118 شهرستان مرزنشین پرداخته است. قلمرو زمانی پژوهش شامل روند تغییرات مهاجرت بر اساس داده­های سرشماری در فاصله سال‌های 95-1390 است. برای آزمون فرضیات تحقیق از الگوی تحلیلی تاپسیس، آزمون-های معناداری پیرسون و رگرسیون، آزمون­های موران عمومی، الگوی فضایی بر اساس نقاط داغ و تحلیل کلاستر استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که میان مهاجرپذیری، خالص مهاجرت، ناخالص مهاجرت و توسعه شهرستان­های مرزنشین رابطه مثبت و معناداری برقرار است. توسعه­یافتگی قادر به تبیین بیش از 19 درصد تغییرات خالص مهاجرت این شهرستان­ها است. همچنین آزمون خوشه­ای ماتریس دووجهی متغیرهای توسعه-یافتگی و خالص مهاجرت نشان داد که عمدتاً شهرستان­های مرزنشین مهاجرفرست بوده و از نظر توسعه­یافتگی نیز در خوشه­های سوم و چهارم (پایین‌ترین سطح توسعه) قرار دارند. میزان خالص مهاجرتی تمایل به متمرکز شدن در فضا دارد. به‌طوری‌که تجمع فضایی لکه­های سرد (مهاجر فرستی بیشتر) متعلق به برخی شهرستان‌های مرزنشین استان‌های اردبیل، کرمانشاه، ایلام و خراسان جنوبی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Study and analysis of the influencing factors of development on the migration patterns in border cities of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmoud Moshfegh 1
  • Mohammad Shekofteh Gohari 2
1 Assistant Professor of Demography, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 MA of Demography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study was conducted by analyzing the secondary data of 118 border cities. The research period includes the trend of migration changes based on census data during the period 1390-1395. To prove the research hypotheses of the Topsis analytical model of Border Cities Development Index, Pearson and regression tests, General Moran tests, Spatial pattern based on hot spots and Cluster analysis is used. The results showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between immigration, net migration, gross migration and development of border cities. Developments are able to account for more than 19 percent of the net migration changes in these cities. Also, the two-way matrix cluster test of the variables of development and net migration indicated that often borderline cities are immigrants and in terms of development, they are in the third and fourth clusters (the lowest level of development). The findings also showed that immigration continued to be a centralized pattern in Iran and Iran's border cities are the most important migrant cities to the more central and more developed provinces of Iran. The net rate of migration tends to concentrate or cluster in space.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Development
  • Bordering cities
  • spatial pattern of migration
  • Cluster Analysis
  • spatial planning
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