Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant professor in Demography, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant professor in Demography, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Associate professor in Demography, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

 
It is not correct to generalize the total fertility rate required for the level of replacement for all countries and regions, especially when the compared regions and countries show considerable differences in terms of the level of development. Using the method of Preston et al. 2003 and utilizing the country's registration and census data from 1385 to 1394, the present study estimated the total fertility rate required for replacement level in Iran and its various provinces. The findings indicate that the total fertility rate required for replacement level is 1.2 children for the years 1390 and 1394. The results also show that the total fertility rate required for replacement level is not the same in different provinces of Iran. For 1390, this index for Sistan and Baluchistan province was 2.3, for the provinces of South Khorasan, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Hormozgan, Kahkiloyeh and Boyer Ahmad, East Azerbaijan, Ilam, Kermanshah, and Kurdistan it was 2.2 and for the other provinces, 2.1 children were calculated for each woman. Paying attention to these differences and the importance of sex ratio at birth and the probability of survival of female children from birth to average childbearing age are among the issues that should be considered in achieving the replacement level of fertility in the country.
Keywords: Replacement Level Fertility, Age-Specific Fertility Rate, Survival Probability of Female Children, Average Maternal Age, Fertility of Iranian Provinces.
Introduction
Several studies have been conducted in Iran in recent years in the field of methods of estimation and evaluation of fertility indicators. However, the methods used do not state that if the fertility of a region or province is at a certain level, according to the factors of survival probability, the number of women in each age group, the average maternal age, and the fertility of the replacement level in that province or region. How much will it be and will it be the same at 1/2 the replacement level at the same rate? What determines the level of difference between different regions in relation to replacement level fertility is the health status and in general, the level of development of the regions, which affects the rates and patterns of mortality, the probability of survival, and the average maternal age. Therefore, considering the difference in the level of development of regions and provinces of the country, this issue is raised as to whether this difference determines the fertility of different succession levels for different provinces. In this study, it will be pointed out which of the provinces' fertility has a greater distance from the normal fertility rate of the replacement level. One of the important points that the results of this study can provide, especially in the field of policymaking, is that despite the difference in the rate of succession in different provinces, the type of policymaking and its intensity and amount will also be different in different regions, and for each region and province will be planned based on the fertility of the replacement level and the distance from which the total fertility is calculated by a different method.
Literature Review
In their studies, some researchers have investigated the changes in the country's population at different times between censuses and estimated fertility rates (Aghajanian, 1991, 1995; Aghajanian & Mehryar, 1999, Mirzaee, 2005, Amani, 1997, 1999). Mirzaei, Sorahi and Naseri (1375) also compared the fertility indices for the years 1365 and 1370 using the indirect method and evaluated the results. Abbasi Shawazi et al. (2013) and Hosseini Chavoshi et al. (2013) also conducted various studies using the method of their children, the level, trend and pattern of fertility at the provincial and national levels, and using the consecutive censuses of 1365; 1375, 1385 and 1390 have been measured and analyzed. In these studies, the level and trend of fertility in Iran in recent decades from 1375 to 1390 have been investigated and the similarities and differences of the fertility pattern in the provinces have been depicted. The main point that remains in the empirical vacuum in all these studies is the issue of fertility below the replacement level for the country and the separation of different provinces. What was important in these studies was how much the changes in total fertility are and how the total fertility has changed in Iran, and this trend has occurred in most regions and provinces of the country.
Materials and Methods
In this research, the approach of Preston et al. (2003: 115) has been used to estimate replacement level fertility. The net reproduction rate is one of the basic concepts in the discussion of replacement-level fertility. By definition, this rate is the average number of live female births from a woman until the age of 50 if she is exposed to age-specific fertility rates and age-specific mortality rates in a given year. Preston et al. (2003) provide the following formula regarding the relationship between the net reproduction rate and the total fertility rate.
 
 )1(
 
In this study, the female population of age groups from the population and housing census of 1385, 1390, and 1395 and the birth and death statistics from the registration data were used.
Conclusion
The provincial results obtained from this study indicate that in provinces with high fertility, the total fertility required for the replacement level is also high. For example, in Sistan and Baluchistan province, where the total fertility rate in 2013 was 3.5 children, the total fertility rate required for the replacement level is 2.34 children. On the other hand, in Tehran province, where the total fertility rate is 1.40, the total fertility rate required for the replacement level is 1.2. Therefore, it seems that there is a significant and strong statistical correlation between the total fertility rate and the total fertility rate required for replacement. In adopting population policies, policymakers should pay attention to both the categories of development and replacement level fertility. It was observed that the fertility level of the succession of the provinces was different, so the type of policies and population planning should be different and variable based on each province.
 
 
 

Keywords

Main Subjects

 
Abbasi Shavazi. M.J (2001) Convergence of Fertility Behaviors in Iran: The Trend and Age Pattern of Fertility in the Provinces of the Country in 1981 and 1996, Social Science Journal, 18, 210-231.
Abbasi Shavazi. M.J (2001) Advantages and disadvantages of own children method in estimating fertility in Iran using census data, Population Journal, 29-30, 1-21.
Abbasi Shavazi, M.J (2003) Estimating one's own children's method in Iran using the census of 1365 and 1375, Journal of Social Sciences, 16, 105-135.
Abbasi Shavazi and Hosseini-Chavoshi. M (2014) Fertility developments in Iran in the last four decades: application and evaluation of the method of own children in estimating fertility using census data from 1996 to 2014, Statistics Research Institute, Iran Statistics Center.
Abbasi Shavazi.M.J, McDonald.P(2005) National and provincial level fertility trends in Iran 1997-2000,Working Paper in Demography, No.94, Australian University.
Aini Zaynab. H and Shams Ghahfarokhi (2013) The effect of tempo (timing of having children) on the total fertility rate in Iran, Journal of Population Association of Iran, 7th year, number 13.
Aghajanian A and Mehryar H. (1999). “Fertility transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1967-1996”, Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 14(1): 21-42.
Aghajanian, A. (1991). "Population change in Iran, 1966–86: a stalled demographic transition?” Population and Development Review. 17, 703–715.
Aghajanian, A. (1995). A new direction in population policy and family planning in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 10(1): 3–20.
Amani. M (1999) An effort in the historical approach to the trend of birth and death rates and the recognition of transition stages, Population Journal, 13-14, 71-83.
Bonggarts. J(2002) The End of Fertility Transition in the Developing World,Working Paper No.161,the population council, New York.
Erfani. A (2012) Detailed report of Tehran Fertility Intentions Survey, Center for Population Studies and Research of Asia and the Pacific, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology: Tehran, Iran.
Espinshade, T. J. & Guzman, J. C. and Westoff, C. F. (2003) “The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility,” Population Research and Policy Review, 22: 575-583.
Hosseini-Chavoshi.M, McDonald.P, -AbbasiShanvazi..M.J, Rashidian.A(2013) Tempo and Quantum of fertility in Iran: An application of the synthetic parity progression ratio method, Paper prepared for presentation at the XXVII International population Conference of the IUSSP, 26-30 Agust 2013, Busan, Korea.
Iran Statistics Center (2015) detailed results of general population and housing census 2015.
Kazemipour. Sh and Soltani Cham Haidari. Z (2011) A look at the issue of fertility below the replacement level and effective policies to deal with it, Journal of Population Association of Iran, No. 14.
Kousheshi. M (1998) Revision of the P/F ratio method for estimating changing fertility (with emphasis on Iran), Social Sciences Journal, No. 14, pp. 173-198.
Mehryar, A. H. and Gholipour, R. )1995(. Provincial differences in fertility in Iran, 1976– 1991. Working Paper, Tehran: Institute for Research on Planning and Development,Tehran.
Mirzaee. M, Kousheshi. M and Naseri.M (1996) Estimation and analysis of the vital indicators of the population of a sugarcane in the 1365 and 1370 censuses, Institute of Social Studies and Research, University of Tehran, Tehran.
Mirzaie, M. (2005). Swings in fertility limitations in Iran. Critique: Critical Middle Easterm Studies, 14(1): 25-33.
National Civil Registration Organization (2015) Demographic Statistics Yearbook 2014 and 2016, Tehran, Publications of the National Civil Registration Organization.
Preston, S. H. & Heuveline, P. and Guillot, M. )2003(Demography-measuring and modeling population processes. UK: Blackwell Publishers Limited.
Saraee. H (2016) Reproduction of Iran's population: current situation and policy considerations, Social Sciences Quarterly, Vol. 22, No. 68, pp. 1-35.
Smallwood, S. and J. Chamberlain (2005) “Replacement fertility, what has it been and what does it mean?” Population Trends 119 (Spring 2005): 16-27.
Uinted Nation Populaton Division (2001) World Population Prospects:The 2000 Revision,Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Zanjani. H (1992) Survey of Fertility in Iran, Urban Planning and Architecture Studies and Research Center in Iran, Tehran: Ministry of Housing and Urban Development