Demography
Rasoul Sadeghi
Abstract
Today, due to the relative stability of fertility and mortality at low levels, the contribution of migration to population dynamics and regional changes has become more noticeable. Migration is a dynamic process arising from changing social contexts that can affect not only migrants but also ...
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Today, due to the relative stability of fertility and mortality at low levels, the contribution of migration to population dynamics and regional changes has become more noticeable. Migration is a dynamic process arising from changing social contexts that can affect not only migrants but also the origin and destination regions. The increase in migrations and displacements, especially from the border areas of the country towards the center and their settlement around megacities, especially around Tehran the capital of Iran, is one of the main social and demographic issues and challenges in Iran. In this regard, this article examines the patterns and determinants of internal migration in the country by using the secondary analysis of individual and aggregated data from the 2011 and 2016 population censuses. The results showed that with the increase in urbanization, the net migration of the population from rural to urban areas decreased and inter-city migrations increased. Tehran is the most attractive province for migration from most provinces. The attractiveness of Tehran is especially higher for western provinces. However, the migration flow from Tehran province is towards Alborz province, and the two northern provinces of the country, Gilan and Mazandaran, where migration is more common among the elderly. In addition, Tehran and surrounding provinces are facing population gain (increase) due to migration, while western and south-eastern provinces, with low levels of development, experience population loss (decrease) due to migration. Considering regional inequalities, age structure (young/ middle-aged), increase in education level, high youth unemployment, and lack of job opportunities in most provinces and counties, it is expected that the trend of internal migration, especially inter-provincial migration, will increase.
Keywords: Internal Migration, Inter-City Migration, Population Dynamics, Regional Inequality.
Introduction
Migration is the movement of individuals from one place to another with the intention of settling, either permanently or temporarily. Today, due to the relatively stable levels of fertility and mortality, the impact of migration on population dynamics and regional changes has become more pronounced. Migration is a dynamic process influenced by changing social contexts that can impact not only migrants but also the regions they come from and go to. While migration is often viewed as an individual pursuit for a better life, it is also a collective response to social, economic, and political changes. In the era of globalization, migration has become a highly politicized issue, leading to significant social, economic, and political consequences in both host and origin countries. Internal migration and displacement can be triggered by a variety of factors with varying degrees of effectiveness. Therefore, gaining a comprehensive understanding of migration factors is crucial in migration studies. The increase in migrations, particularly from border areas to urban centers like Tehran, poses significant social and demographic challenges in Iran. Thus, this article explores the patterns and determinants of internal migration in Iran.
Materials and Methods
This study analyzed individual and aggregated data from the 2011 and 2016 population censuses in Iran, to investigate internal migration trends, patterns, and flows from 2006 to 2016. By focusing on recent migration data at the provincial and county levels, the study aims to provide insights into regional migration patterns and the drivers of internal migration.
Findings
The findings indicated that during the initial phases of urbanization, rural-urban migration was predominant, but as urbanization progressed, urban-to-urban migration became the dominant pattern. As urbanization increased, net migration from rural to urban areas decreased, while inter-city migrations rose. Male migration patterns were influenced more by employment factors, while female migration was driven by family and education considerations. Demographic selective of internal migration led to changes in the age and gender composition of both origin and destination populations. The aging and feminization of rural and underdeveloped areas were attributed to the out-migration of young men. This trend also resulted in a shortage of marriage partners for women in rural regions.
Also, results showed Regional migration patterns were linked to regional economic development and growth. Disparities in development led to uneven growth and uncontrolled population movements. Tehran emerged as the most attractive destination for migrants from other provinces, particularly from the western regions. However, out-migration from Tehran was directed towards Alborz, Gilan, and Mazandaran provinces, where elderly migration was more common in this case. Tehran and its surrounding provinces experienced population growth due to migration, while less developed western and southeastern provinces saw population decline. Provinces with net negative migration tended to have predominantly rural populations and high unemployment rates.
Conclusion
The study's findings revealed a shift in the pattern of rural-urban migration towards inter-city migration, with a rise in inter-county and inter-provincial migration. There has also been an increase in the involvement of women in migration flows, as well as a surge in out-migration from the eastern and western regions towards the central region. Given the existing regional disparities, the relatively young and middle-aged population structure, higher education levels, elevated youth unemployment rates, and limited job opportunities in many provinces and counties, it is anticipated that internal migration, particularly inter-provincial migration, will continue to increase. The ongoing trend of migration from less developed areas to more developed regions is further widening regional inequalities.
Acknowledgments
The initial version of this article was presented at the First National Conference on the Social Situation of Iran, hosted by Allameh Tabataba'i University and supported by the Ministry of Interior's Social Affairs Organization in March 2023. The author would like to express their gratitude to the organizers and supporters of the conference for providing the opportunity to present this article and subsequently revise and expand it to its current form.
Conflict of interest
There is no conflict of interest.
Demography
Reza Nobakht; Ahmad Dorahaki; Ali Ghasemi Ardahaee
Abstract
It is not correct to generalize the total fertility rate required for the level of replacement for all countries and regions, especially when the compared regions and countries show considerable differences in terms of the level of development. Using the method of Preston et al. 2003 and utilizing ...
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It is not correct to generalize the total fertility rate required for the level of replacement for all countries and regions, especially when the compared regions and countries show considerable differences in terms of the level of development. Using the method of Preston et al. 2003 and utilizing the country's registration and census data from 1385 to 1394, the present study estimated the total fertility rate required for replacement level in Iran and its various provinces. The findings indicate that the total fertility rate required for replacement level is 1.2 children for the years 1390 and 1394. The results also show that the total fertility rate required for replacement level is not the same in different provinces of Iran. For 1390, this index for Sistan and Baluchistan province was 2.3, for the provinces of South Khorasan, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Hormozgan, Kahkiloyeh and Boyer Ahmad, East Azerbaijan, Ilam, Kermanshah, and Kurdistan it was 2.2 and for the other provinces, 2.1 children were calculated for each woman. Paying attention to these differences and the importance of sex ratio at birth and the probability of survival of female children from birth to average childbearing age are among the issues that should be considered in achieving the replacement level of fertility in the country.
Keywords: Replacement Level Fertility, Age-Specific Fertility Rate, Survival Probability of Female Children, Average Maternal Age, Fertility of Iranian Provinces.
Introduction
Several studies have been conducted in Iran in recent years in the field of methods of estimation and evaluation of fertility indicators. However, the methods used do not state that if the fertility of a region or province is at a certain level, according to the factors of survival probability, the number of women in each age group, the average maternal age, and the fertility of the replacement level in that province or region. How much will it be and will it be the same at 1/2 the replacement level at the same rate? What determines the level of difference between different regions in relation to replacement level fertility is the health status and in general, the level of development of the regions, which affects the rates and patterns of mortality, the probability of survival, and the average maternal age. Therefore, considering the difference in the level of development of regions and provinces of the country, this issue is raised as to whether this difference determines the fertility of different succession levels for different provinces. In this study, it will be pointed out which of the provinces' fertility has a greater distance from the normal fertility rate of the replacement level. One of the important points that the results of this study can provide, especially in the field of policymaking, is that despite the difference in the rate of succession in different provinces, the type of policymaking and its intensity and amount will also be different in different regions, and for each region and province will be planned based on the fertility of the replacement level and the distance from which the total fertility is calculated by a different method.
Literature Review
In their studies, some researchers have investigated the changes in the country's population at different times between censuses and estimated fertility rates (Aghajanian, 1991, 1995; Aghajanian & Mehryar, 1999, Mirzaee, 2005, Amani, 1997, 1999). Mirzaei, Sorahi and Naseri (1375) also compared the fertility indices for the years 1365 and 1370 using the indirect method and evaluated the results. Abbasi Shawazi et al. (2013) and Hosseini Chavoshi et al. (2013) also conducted various studies using the method of their children, the level, trend and pattern of fertility at the provincial and national levels, and using the consecutive censuses of 1365; 1375, 1385 and 1390 have been measured and analyzed. In these studies, the level and trend of fertility in Iran in recent decades from 1375 to 1390 have been investigated and the similarities and differences of the fertility pattern in the provinces have been depicted. The main point that remains in the empirical vacuum in all these studies is the issue of fertility below the replacement level for the country and the separation of different provinces. What was important in these studies was how much the changes in total fertility are and how the total fertility has changed in Iran, and this trend has occurred in most regions and provinces of the country.
Materials and Methods
In this research, the approach of Preston et al. (2003: 115) has been used to estimate replacement level fertility. The net reproduction rate is one of the basic concepts in the discussion of replacement-level fertility. By definition, this rate is the average number of live female births from a woman until the age of 50 if she is exposed to age-specific fertility rates and age-specific mortality rates in a given year. Preston et al. (2003) provide the following formula regarding the relationship between the net reproduction rate and the total fertility rate.
)1(
In this study, the female population of age groups from the population and housing census of 1385, 1390, and 1395 and the birth and death statistics from the registration data were used.
Conclusion
The provincial results obtained from this study indicate that in provinces with high fertility, the total fertility required for the replacement level is also high. For example, in Sistan and Baluchistan province, where the total fertility rate in 2013 was 3.5 children, the total fertility rate required for the replacement level is 2.34 children. On the other hand, in Tehran province, where the total fertility rate is 1.40, the total fertility rate required for the replacement level is 1.2. Therefore, it seems that there is a significant and strong statistical correlation between the total fertility rate and the total fertility rate required for replacement. In adopting population policies, policymakers should pay attention to both the categories of development and replacement level fertility. It was observed that the fertility level of the succession of the provinces was different, so the type of policies and population planning should be different and variable based on each province.
Demography
Latif Partovi; Mohammad Shayanmehr
Abstract
The elderly are among the most vulnerable groups during crises and gender is one of the most important factors in this regard. The purpose of this study was to explore gender differences of lived experiences of young elderly people during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Using a qualitative method, 13 young elderly ...
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The elderly are among the most vulnerable groups during crises and gender is one of the most important factors in this regard. The purpose of this study was to explore gender differences of lived experiences of young elderly people during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Using a qualitative method, 13 young elderly people (60-74 years old including 7 men and 6 women) were selected through purposive sampling in Mahabad and interviewed using a semi-structured format. The data were analyzed using Colaizzi method. The results were classified in two themes including "Transformed home and dwindling physical and spiritual powers" for women, and "Social distance and disturbed retirement life" for men. Based on the results, it is concluded that during pandemic older women were exposed to double physical and psychological pressures inside home while men faced increasing in emotional pressure due to not being able to go outside. Therefore, it is suggested that in policy formation, while understanding the different position of young elderly men and women, especially the situation of women, pay more attention to the role of family members and their social support in addition to official supportive measures.
Demography
Farzad Ghorbani; Mohammad Mirzaei; Mohammad Haddadi; Zainab Mohammadi zade
Abstract
In the last few decades, The average age of marriage has had a considerable increase, it seems that such an increase is not due to a change in people’s tendencies. There is a gap between the actual age of marriage and the ideal age for people, and a number of factors have caused the gap to appear. ...
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In the last few decades, The average age of marriage has had a considerable increase, it seems that such an increase is not due to a change in people’s tendencies. There is a gap between the actual age of marriage and the ideal age for people, and a number of factors have caused the gap to appear. The present study aims to examine the determinants of the gap between the actual and the ideal age of marriage. The statistical population of the study consists of those who are at the age of marriage in the province of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad. The sample size was 400 people which was based on the proportion of the cities’ population. The results showed that more than 60% of participants experienced a gap between their real and ideal age of marriage. Such a gap has been positive for the majority of people. This means that the percentage of people who postponed the ideal time of their marriage is high. Multivariate analysis indicates that education, value orientation, and employment status affect the real and the ideal age of marriage among men. For women, on the other hand, education, family income, value orientation, and employment status have an impact on the aforementioned gap. Approximately among half of the participants the ideal age of marriage was less than the actual age of their marriage, policymakers can provide the structural prerequisites so that the problem of postponed marriage can be resolved, as it is one of the main concerns of the country. And as evidenced by the study’s findings, people have a positive attitude towards marriage at an early age.
Demography
Javad Shojaei; Amir Erfani
Abstract
One of the results of the fertility rate continuously being below the replacement rate is the prevalence of one-child families, for which there are no exact scientific information in Iran regarding the level of prevalence and trend of change. The present study aims to estimate the level, changes, and ...
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One of the results of the fertility rate continuously being below the replacement rate is the prevalence of one-child families, for which there are no exact scientific information in Iran regarding the level of prevalence and trend of change. The present study aims to estimate the level, changes, and age patterns of one-child families in Iran during 2000-2016. The data from two Tehran Fertility Surveys (2009 and 2014), three Iran’s Demographic and Health Surveys (2000, 2010, 2015), and three censuses (2006, 2011, 2016) were used. Based on the age of married women and number of living children, “definite” and “indefinite” percentages of one-child families were calculated, where the first one referred to married women aged 40-44 or 45-49 with one-child, and the latter referred to those under the age of 40 with one-child. The census results showed that the definite one-child families among women aged 45- 49 increased from 4.4% in 2006 to 5.1% in 2011 and 7.8% in 2016. Similar increasing trends were found from Demographic and Health Surveys and Tehran Fertility Surveys, with a sharper increase in one-child families in Tehran, where the percentage of definite one-child families rose from 3.6% in 2009 to 11.9% in 2014. The estimated levels of one-child families from different sources of data confirmed valid and reliable increasing trends of one-child families in Iran. Key words: One-child Family, Definite One-child Families, Indefinite One-child Families, Fertility Rate.