Demography
Javad Shojaei; Amir Erfani
Abstract
One of the results of the fertility rate continuously being below the replacement rate is the prevalence of one-child families, for which there are no exact scientific information in Iran regarding the level of prevalence and trend of change. The present study aims to estimate the level, changes, and ...
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One of the results of the fertility rate continuously being below the replacement rate is the prevalence of one-child families, for which there are no exact scientific information in Iran regarding the level of prevalence and trend of change. The present study aims to estimate the level, changes, and age patterns of one-child families in Iran during 2000-2016. The data from two Tehran Fertility Surveys (2009 and 2014), three Iran’s Demographic and Health Surveys (2000, 2010, 2015), and three censuses (2006, 2011, 2016) were used. Based on the age of married women and number of living children, “definite” and “indefinite” percentages of one-child families were calculated, where the first one referred to married women aged 40-44 or 45-49 with one-child, and the latter referred to those under the age of 40 with one-child. The census results showed that the definite one-child families among women aged 45- 49 increased from 4.4% in 2006 to 5.1% in 2011 and 7.8% in 2016. Similar increasing trends were found from Demographic and Health Surveys and Tehran Fertility Surveys, with a sharper increase in one-child families in Tehran, where the percentage of definite one-child families rose from 3.6% in 2009 to 11.9% in 2014. The estimated levels of one-child families from different sources of data confirmed valid and reliable increasing trends of one-child families in Iran. Key words: One-child Family, Definite One-child Families, Indefinite One-child Families, Fertility Rate.
